Having a Nimrod is like having an insurance policy, what the politicians have got to decide is whether it is worth paying the premiums for something that is extremely unlikely to ever concievably be needed.
If you don't think you need it and the Navy say they can manage on their own (as they will be doing so as to protect their own kit) and the Airforce chiefs are willing to offer up a sacrificial lamb from outside the sharp and pointy fleets, then really the kipper fleet should be very worried!
I have heard all the arguments about Kinloss being leased land and too expensive to return to original state, have heard about the project already having been paid for etc, etc but all these things are insignificant to the powers that be.
Unfortunately the troubled recent history of the Mk2, the desperate cuts needed and the rhetoric about slashing legacy/cold war projects and capability all point towards the Nimrod and the chopping block to me.
I hope I am wrong but have a niggling feeling I am not.