In this time more SFOs can be upgraded, and as we all know they'll be replaced with the cheaper cadets.
True about the cadets even if there are very few coming down the line lately.
You can upgrade SFO's (pass rate permitting) but consider also that they will be moved to 5/3 bases somewhere on the other side of Europe on a lower salary sometimes even making less money than F/O's (like in the case of old VS new BRK contract);with the market picking up again not a good recipe for their faithfulness once they have logged a few hundred hours in command.
Another consideration about the winter is that while you upgrade SFO's you are taking flight hours away from others who are already flying less, making ****e $$$ and obviously attending roadshows and interviews.
Extra care should also be taken when talking about Captains because I already know a few who are working on the new reduced terms in a base miles away from anything they consider home and who are actively looking around for options.
PB will have to face reality sooner or later.