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Old 25th Aug 2010, 20:16
  #1970 (permalink)  
GreatBear
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Chesapeake Bay
Age: 79
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Thanks, henra,

Your numbers are valuable.

What is "known" or can be reasonably inferred is

AF447 was in serious upset at 0210.

Af447 was in the water by 0214 or 0215.

Henra, your calculation estimates ~15 secs for decel to stall in the high AOA scenario (ALT Law, no alpha prot) with a gain of altitude, staying under 3g (per JD-EE), and puts the A/C in the water soonest in ~2 minutes from stall.

Once stalled, no control surfaces work. Kick the rudder; nothing happens. Push forward on the stick; nothing happens; aerilons useless. Try thrust to the stalled wing's engine? Flameout? Try this; try that? A/C in a horizontal plane. High g rotational forces in cockpit. A/C pretty much descending vertically. Time running short. All the while, automatic ACARS messages are being sent as the situation evolves...

For the "where," I do hope they mount a Phase 4 effort and look near the LKP. For the "why," I hope they successfully recover the recorders.

So far, there are no answers and a great many plausible scenarios

GB
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