Only 36% of CX pilots voted for ND.
Only 57% of CX pilots are voting members of the AOA.
150 have joined CX since the ban started.
200 have left the AOA since the 49ers were rightfully dismissed (but using totally the wrong process morally (but smart legal one)).
ND tells the membership in his first post election letter that the ban will be reconsidered, but tells the SCMP that industrial action is coming involving the more junior pilots.
What I think....ND finally sees that the AOA is fornicating itself, members are leaving and the ban is a bad joke. He will drop the ban, foresake some of the 49ers provided they receive 'fair treatment' and hope like hell for a resonable offer from CX which the membership will accept. If this doesn't happen, he will return to the membership telling them 'now is the time for action, we have done everything we can to reach agreement, but we now must act...' He will call for a sickout, strike etc...and he and a handfull of other fools will give it a go. CX will respond 'robustly'...and the AOA will be decimated.
Pitty...we do need an effective empoyee body....