The following pic shows the most likely crash site for AF447 based on a polynomial regression from the locations of the first 22 bodies recovered, focused using the location of the SAR 'pollutions spot' (slick).
It uses a program called FODDA (FluidFlow’s Oceanic Drift Data Analysis Program) which used the method of least squares to interpolate the body drift from the SAR point and then only has to extrapolate a relatively small distance (30.03 hrs) to determine the most likely crash site. A dataset was selected which would minimize the analysis error. The drift of the bodies was chosen as this is the only data set that will have ‘least different ie most similar’ characteristics, however the actual body drift shows a ‘fanning’ out from this point which should also occur hence supporting the validity of this analysis. The same occurs for the VS and galley which are located further off this ‘body drift line’ than any other body, as would also be expected. The probability of this position being correct is virtually the same probability of the pollution spot being from AF447.
FluidFlow acknowledges the valuable work of the Drift Group which enabled this alternative analysis to be completed and would like to thank the BEA for publishing the Drift report.
I was planning on doing up a report to show the mathematics behind this analysis so would appreciate criticism so I can cover this in my report. I will have limited internet access over the next week but would value your comments. I trust FODDA will provide some ‘food for thought’.
Thanks
Ian
