I think we are going over old ground.
First and foremost Mr Guppy is correct – engines do fail, and just because the statistics predict an engine will fail every 2,000 hours or whatever doesn’t mean that your particular failure will not be in the first 50 hours and you will not have a second failure in the next 5 hours. Obvious, I think we would all agree.
However, the stats do suggest that engine failures are rare, and become a great deal rarer if they are not pilot or mechanic induced in some way.
The FAA have produced stats that I believe are reasonably reliable and on which I base this statement. However, I recognise that far from all engine failures are reported so inevitably the stats are only as good as the reliability of the raw data.
I also agree with IO540’s point in that with any statistical analysis there will be hot spots. We all know there are aircraft that for one reason or another suffer higher engine failure rates than others. Dare I say there are also pilots who seem predisposed to engine failures!
How we cope with an engine failure is down to luck and skill – an issue on which I know I and Mr Guppy will part company. I agree with the recent poster – fly anytime soon over parts of Devon and Cornwall and with all the skill in the world you will do very well indeed to stop before a dry stone wall does the stopping for you. How well the landing turns out will probably depend on how hard the stone wall is and how quickly it does the job for you!
The reality is many pilots fly very few hours a year. They are struggling to remain substantially competent never mind being forced landing Sky Gods. I gave an analogy previously about sailing because I felt it was relevant. Yachties are no different – the majority would struggle to do a reasonable job of recovering a MOB simply because they do not sail enough. The RYA recognised this problem some while back so we teach a method of recovery which gives the most ham fisted of skippers the best chance of recovering the person. In the same way pilots who don’t fly many hours a year must either spend all the time they are flying rehearsing FLs, give up flying, or use a technique which gives them the best chance of a successful FLing.
You may feel my point of view is complacent, but I think it is realistic because for many if they spend their whole time worrying about the engines failing, where and how they were going to land, not only would they give up flying, but they would probably may a mess of all the other equally important management tasks like changing tanks so the engine doesn’t run out of fuel due to fuel starvation.
For those who fly more often by all means stake your claim as a Sky God – spend more time rehearsing these skills and developing the best possible technique and you may increase your chances of success should the worst happen.
For the rest of us operate a Cirrus whenever you can; I shall be pulling the chute so hopefully it is pretty much academic.