lars,
My (limited) understanding is that you don't necessarily define a specific threat.
So for example, and its a made up one, you don't say that there is a specific threat such as an invasion by Greece of the UK in 15 years time - after they have dropped out of the Euro and invaded all of Europe in revenge for the poverty they were plunged into (apologies to any Greeks reading).
Rather, as I alluded to in my Step 1, you decide on what you want to able do, such as for example:
Conduct an amphibious landing (opposed/unopposed?) of a brigade sized force.
Whether this amphibious ability is then used downstream in the Falklands, or Denmark or Iran or Korea or Cuba or even Maine is not a required part of your crystal ball gazing. It is something you can do where ever or when ever you so require it.
As further examples, if part of what you want to do (my Step 1) is "Defend the UK from acts of terroism and cyber warfare" you do so by having certain capabilities, without being specific about where the terroism/cyber threat has orginated from or will originate from in the next 20 years.
So you go for the generic rather than the specific.
Anyway, that is my understanding. But I am a very small cog in the machine, don't now, and have never, work in MOD - and have been repeatedly told that I am too simplistic (which is ironic when you consider that the KISS principle was hammered into me repeatedly in training).
