Northbeach
I have to say your analysis is pretty good.
However I do feel that some LoCo airlines will cancel for their convenience.
Recently reported in the UK press on a day of disrution due to problems with French ATC Ryanair and Easyjet cancelled some 220 flights.
On the same day BA cancelled about ten.
The BA pax were probably carried on other services.
The intricate model of integrating crews and aircraft doesn't necessarily apply to LoCo in Europe as most of the flights are out and back to the same airport.
Nevertheless an excellent analysis.