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Old 13th Aug 2010, 16:52
  #1876 (permalink)  
D Bru
 
Join Date: May 2010
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Where?

Thanks, mm43 for that graph and your interpretation of the differences between the French and English version.

I’m inclined to see the “pollution spot” as a red herring.

As for the Drift Group report, it is laudable of BEA to put that online, but the only conclusion I can sensibly draw from its 100+ pages, combined with the fact that the search has remained fruitless until now, is that, despite all the modeling, the few real data available at the time of and immediately after the crash do not permit to draw any other conclusion than that 447 can be anywhere within the 40nm radius from LKP except:

1. In the area that has been searched so far, and
2. (very) close to LKP.

The first seems obvious. And I realize that the second one goes against what some other participants in this forum have suggested (e.g. the adepts of a “deep stall” scenario). But I base myself on the 02:14 ACARS Advisory Cabin Vertical Speed message. Assuming that 447 @ 2:10 at LKP was still at its FL350, it took still four minutes of flight from there before the CVS + 1800 ft/min message.

I stand to be corrected, but wouldn’t that imply that the V/S of 447 from LKP until then could not have been as such to make it end up (very) close to LKP.

Wouldn’t mind receiving some feedback on that.

Dutch
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