BHD will survive without FR
I have to say I agree totally with comment, if they axed the base and pulled out and stopped flying to BHD I think EZY would look at replacing some of their services, eg STN, LPL.
However, simply cannot see FR axing Belfast City for a few reasons;
1. It was set up super quick in response to EI looking at BFS base
2. FR would not withdraw and leave the business to the competition, after all they are carrying serious numbers on most of the routes, ie STN. Besides axing STN would be making it a little easier for EI/EZY.
3. They have steadily gained good share of the market on EMA STN BRS LPL. PIK seems to compete more with the boat?
If Ryanair are ready to do battle with BHD management over fees/charges or runway extention BHD need to stand firm and realise the benefits that FR have here and bear in mind that it is unlikely that a deal would be done better with the international airport, as I am sure that EI would sought assurances that FR were not being enticed in when they were negotiating.