Feel free to call me a sceptic, yet I suspect that the Libyans will deliberately take far longer than necessary to publish their findings. If the finger points to any deficiencies within the airline and/or human error, the Libyans will not want this information to be circulated. Whilst Libya has reformed from the dark days when it was allegedly linked to terrorism, it is still far from being a State where information is circulated freely. Whilst other organisations will be assisting in the investigation, I am sure the Libyans will not have relinquished their right of leading the investigation and subsequently publishing the findings.
Not only is a loss of face in the Arab world one of the most embarrassing things someone can endure, the Libyans will be petrified that Afriqiyah's future expansion will be hindered by anything negative that may arise from any findings.
There is also a conflict of interest here since Afriqiyah is owned by the government and the CAA in Libya is.... wholly owned by the government. Post accident investigations are supposed to be fully independent and impartial. The Libyan investigation can only be described as an 'internal' investigation, with some external assistance! Having worked in Libya previously and for a Libyan operator (not government owned!), I would not be at all surprised if the Libyan investigation team are all on first name terms with the senior management in Afriqiyah (most of whom have been in aviation since the pre sanction days with Libyan Arab or Jamahiriya Light Air Transport.).
Having read the brief summary given by Phil Squares on the previous pages, such a combination of possible factors are not what Afriqiyah and the Libyans will want to hear. However if CRM issues are to play here then Afriqiyah cannot be directly blamed since the LCAA framework for CRM training is somewhat laughable and is decades behind industry standard.
Last edited by Mister Geezer; 4th Aug 2010 at 10:48.