Is the States up to making the right decision?
As an observer of Channel Island aviation and a researcher into the history of air travel to and from the island, there are many factors that I think the States should consider before agreeing to the sale of Aurigny to Blue Islands.
Whilst an agreement regarding the retention of the London hub-airport slots is possible with the current owner of Blue Islands, it is imperative that the States satisfy themselves that these will continue under the circumstance, say in five or ten years time, when the current chairman of BI (now in his early 60’s) stands down from his interests in Healthspan, or sells his companies.
This will be to the highest bidder - who may or may not have any interest in continuing with the airline, for example a company such as Holland and Barrett is unlikely to want to continue to act as banker to a CI based airline.
The States should ensure that they are aware of the succession plans for the Healthspan businesses following Derek Coates’ retirement and whether these ensure the continued operation of the airline and the guarantee of the London hub slots.
History does not bode well for the continuation of the service. Commercial decisions invariably dominate airline activities and operations and the Guernsey – London service has been repeatedly threatened, for instance in:
1. 1947 BEA incurred a huge financial deficit and as part of its cost cutting decided to suspend the direct Guernsey to London service – offering in its place a connection via Jersey. The States complained so vehemently about the loss of the direct link to a London hub airport, the service was reinstated the next spring.
2. 1962 BEA transferred its CI services from Heathrow to Gatwick – before the latter could justifiably be called a London hub, but Gatwick was not popular with the travelling public and in 1963 BEA returned all but one of its daily London flights to Heathrow.
3. On 31March 1999, KLM uk withdrew all operations from Guernsey, including services to Southampton, London Stansted and Amsterdam
4. 16 June 2003, British Airways announced the withdrawal of services between Guernsey and London Gatwick airport leading to where we are today.
Alongside all of this is the proposed work on the runway – failure of the current proposals to gain timely approval from the States will be likely to lead to the relegation of the island from the future plans of any commercial airline, as any successor to BI is unlikely to keep on flying small outdated equipment just for one destination. The most likely outcome would then be migration of banking and international businesses to Jersey, with Guernsey either by-passed or becoming a dormitory for the bigger island. The island has seldom faced a set of decisions with the potential for so great an impact regarding the islands future prosperity as it does now. 