The carriers are probably safe (and thus so is F35) as, along with Trident, they will keep the UK on the top table with the US, and are the only vehs that give the government worldwide clout, on station and ready.....but not committed politically - you can't do that with shored based air or troops.
There is NO comparison between Rafale and F35....but there is a case for the carriers to be capable of operating Rafale and F18 (ie a cat/trap system).
There is a widespread recognition that the RN have been hit the hardest over the past few years and are the leanest of the 3 Services (after years of LEAN!), most contractor support, few in 2nd line posts etc. The real money is in acquisition where 10s of 1000s work.