Typical Robert Fox informed speculation, with some accuracy from MOD information releases and second guessing the SDSR outcome, which is some way off.
There is little doubt that the Army will face significant reduction post Afghanistan....but not before. There is no requirement for a standing Army and the "withdraw from Germany" option is unaffordable in infrastructure terms. The question is who will the Army take as hostages to fortune in their reductions...no doubt they will try and kill off/absorb the RMs (and thus amphibiosity as a quid pro quo).
All of the guff coming out of Hague and Liam Fox has been pro global presence and in position influence i.e. pro RN forward presence with CV and FF/DD/SMs. The real problem lies with the RAF who have backed the wrong horse with Typhoon. They should get real and go hell for leather with F35.
As far as DFID is concerned, the problem they have is that part of their funding is controlled via the NSC....hence the CVF jibe. And the public are against spending money on foreigners.