I am no RUSI graduate, or defence academic - but by 2020 the world will be more unstable than it is now, not fighting over oil or religion, but the even more fundamental requirements of water, food and living space.
This is an important staement.
I left the RAF in the big reductions at the end of the Cold War. At the time I wrote a paper for RUSI that was rejected. Main points were:
1. Increasing instability as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Cited Balkans, Georgia. Middle East and the 'Stans together with many historical examples.
2. Need to increase - not decrease - conventional forces to protect energy interests in the ME.
3. Requirement to be able to deploy surface (including naval) and air power.
The fact is that decisions made over the next few months will have an impact for many years. Any war fought in 10 years will be fought with equipment now in the procurement chain.
The real challenge is in making a reasonable assessment as to the possible threats. Guesswork? Yes, to a certain extent but I applaud the efforts that appear to be being made to get some good guesses.
I recall a conversation with an Air rank staff officer on one of the MoD planning committees about 25 years ago:
'We have been in about 25 wars, conflicts, emergencies since the end of WW2', he said. 'We only had plans for one of them. That means we should either shut down such planning efforts or expand them.'
Except in small actions, the UK no longer has the wherewithall to act unilaterally. We need partners through various treaties. NATO is the prime example here. Yes, we have commitments to this organization, a key to our long term defence.
Procurement is a huge cost. NATO has some skills in this area. Might it not be an idea to use these and provide some equipment commonality? Old story, I know. But the times might force, at least the European nations, down this route.
You will all hate this next thought. The RAF has been slow, very slow, to accept contractors. Believe me thay can do a good job IF they are allowed to. The US Army knows how to use them. They can do things fast, efficiently and at a reasonable cost. I know. I spent 5 years post RAF contracting to the US military.
Just some thoughts.
Act in haste, repent at leisure.