Now this is interesting. Thanks for the replies so far.
I'm also more and more convinced about the CYA factor involved...
So you could say there's more difference between the PROB30 and 40 then just a 10% chance. I wonder if the met-man also keeps this in mind when making the TAF.
And why there's no PROB20 ( like a met-CYA) or a PROB50 (a real 'warning').
Hope there are some met-people active on PPRUNE, maybe they can 'enlighten' us.
More thoughts of the old-and-bold..???
FTF