Chances of a job

[foghorn]

Here's my twopenneth as someone on the outside with a (fairly) new licence and low hours staring in at the world of professional aviation.

The potential winners at the moment are those who can keep their head above water in a job outside aviation, paying off debts, flying as often as possible, as complex as they can sensibly afford - IFR piston twin ideally (I know, pigs will fly, however there are many reasonably-priced simulators around).

Openings for professional pilots at all levels are few and far between from instructors upwards. This will change. The nature and timescale of the change is very much a matter of opinion, timescales from 1 to 4 years for a full recovery have been mooted, and there is no doubt that low-hour people are at the back of a long queue. What is irrefutable, is that the first green shoots of recovery are visible - many pilots laid off after September have been rehired, some CTC cadets have been taken on by airlines, many airlines are reporting a tight crewing situation this summer etc.

Personally, I think that there will be quite an active hiring season this autumn, which will leave the jobs market in a much better situation than it is now for next year. What next year brings, much has been made of the potential of a major conflict in the Gulf, so I won't revisit that. Thankfully I'm better at flying than reading tea leaves. What I do know is that the CAA's own figures seem to imply that on the rate of issue of new IRs, there are less unemployed fATPLs out there than some people think. I've made something of this before (see my threads passim): due to the post-JAR complexity of the job market, it could be a meaningful statistic, or it could turn out to be a red herring. I'll leave that up to you.

Getting that airline job was always going to be a marathon not a sprint, it's just that last September someone moved the finish line just as (for me) it was starting to become a tangible goal. I am sure I don't need to tell the other people in a similar position to me how frustrating and depressing at times this can be, however some of you out there now contemplating taking your first steps in professional aviation training need to think about this and face up to real possibility that your huge personal and financial venture may come to naught. Many do fall by the wayside with their dreams in tatters and their bank balances a lot worse off.

This doesn't mean that there won't be winners, though. The only sure fire way of losing is to give up. You've got to be in it to win it. All the extra tribulations and heartache will just make getting there that much sweeter.

Keep that chin up!
foggy.