Ian, are you suggesting precip/rain/moisture as the air anomaly that sets up your M error, or a vertical column of warm/moister air (which Tim Vasquez had suggested in his analysis), arising from the inherent instability within a Cb?
If I understand you correctly, this M error, due to the combination of factors, ought to have been experienced more frequently. Is it your suggestion that it has been, but the community has been generally unaware since the community wasn't looking for it?