ORAC wrote:
Regardless, there is no real monetary saving in cutting the odd squadron, the real savings are in retiring a fleet with all the associated training, logistic support etc.
Quite right; this is why I think that Harrier will be first to go as a result of the previous cuts and that it is not scheduled to got back to Afghanistan. I suspect that Harrier will be going by the end of the financial year, and harsh as it is, I wouldn't be surprised to see go in 2010. Remember the fate of 6 Sqn at the end of the Jag....
(And I'm sure that you'll go out in true Bonajet style!)
Accepting the Typhoon and the JSF will form the core of the future RAF, that leaves the GR4 fleet. I accept that will leave a large capability gap until the Typhoon weapons upgrades are completed and/or a suitable future UAV capability can be procured - if at all. But it does make for a major saving in costs, plus it eliminates the need for FJ navigator training and a resultant reduction in manpower.
I half agree with this. Typhoon and Dave (JSF / JCA / F-35) will form the the RAF FJ fleet in the 2020s. However, I think the fiscally possible route to this is to delay the arrival of Dave until the GR4s are retired, not the other way around. Within this, it would be possible (if unpalatable) for the GR4 force to focus exclusively on Herrick and be slimmed down as a result. Slim it far enough (4 Sqns + OCU?) and two further savings are possible:
- first, closing Marham or Lossie (i.e. probably Marham given that it's due to close later this decade. Doubtless Norfolk needs another prison.
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- second, you'll have enough Navs in the system now to see the jet to an OSD of 2020(ish).
Once you go firm on this - and potentially golden handcuff enough Navs - you can stop all Nav training making substantially greater savings. So, a potential for a FJ Nav Retention scheme - some sort of a silver lining?
(Note to SDSR PSOs: this is a non-reversible decision - make sure you're sure before pressing to test!)
This would retain a TGRF strategic capability with Storm Shadow, but precious little else - it would be "all Afghanland all the time" for most of the next decade - especially as PM Cameron has pencilled a land force in theatre until beyond 2015. A substantially smaller GR4 force would then be replaced with a similar sized JSF force from 2020 - preferably Dave-C, given the extra range and weapons capacity.
The next question is how many Typhoon Sqns you want to form, and what do you want them to do? Ministerial statements from the last government and the current situation suggest that Tranche 3b is dead and buried. Others here will know better than I the number of Typhoons that are on contract, minus the number diverted to Saudi (and potentially Oman).
Next question: what do you want Typhoon to do in the medium term? Again, a reasonable worst case, though unpalatable, would give you Typhoon doing AD with a very limited A-G commitment, focussed on QRA(I) North, South and Far South. On this pattern, 111's lonely northern vigil with the F3 shows that you can maintain QRA with one large Sqn (which is not to say that this is any fun, but that's the way it goes) suggesting that you could do QRA (though not much else) with 4 Sqns + OCU, or about 60 jets. (I do hope that the F3s bow out with a suitable amount of Tremblers' style and panache next spring.... 404+ Switchblade flick-knife of death to the end!
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Where does this get us with Typhoon? At a push, perhaps 3 Sqns + OCU? And if you've got a single Sqn doing QRA North, then having Leuchars open seems like an expensive luxury - so relocate QRA North to Lossie or Kinloss. (Probably going to be lots of room at Kinloss for sometime to come...). Given the diversion requirements, if you converted Leuchars into Tayport International Airport (for Dundee and St Andrews), then you'd be well advised to pay them to keep the cable.
Finally, if you end up with as small an FJ frontline as this, you immediately call into question then need for the FJ MFTS in particular and Valley / Linton in general. The demand could be met using NFTC Cold Lake, resulting in very significant savings, especially of the Hawk 128s and Tucano replacement elements of MFTS. (Note to SDSR PSOs: this is also effectively a non-reversible decision - make sure you're sure before pressing to test!)
Just some (unwelcome) thoughts. But I'd be surprised if these weren't under consideration as the left-field options in the SDSR bunker.
S41
PS, Sorry for the length.