CogSim
Personally I think it unlikely that waterspouts redistributed debris. BEA have determined satisfactorily (to them) that the a/c was intact at impact. This rules out what might have resulted (and has, in many unfortunate encounters) vis a vis in-flight loss of parts. A large a/c in upset and rapid descent would ordinarily be vulnerable to such disintegration; throw in large hail, massive updraft and 'blended' shear, it might have resulted in a shower of small bits and pieces. For instance, golf ball hail lifted at fifty knots against an airframe descending at two hundred would have been the same as flying through plum size gravel, yet there is no evidence on recovered materials of such an event. I have seen resin/fiber radomes after separation at altitude, the deformation resembles what we see here, with 447. The fractures of 447's radome resemble those seen in "flattening" (airstream) impact in other events.
As much room as there is in this accident for "outlier" theories, whatever happened most likely occurred in pedestrian fashion; this does not prevent gaining knowledge in a general way that is helpful in making safer the future of air travel. It is human nature to "want" a certain explanation, whether it is "Lightning", "Weather", or "Fluke". No one wants to admit to simple (and preventable) cause.
tailwinds,
bear