ELAC:
Unfortunately the data doesn't support either of your hypotheses.
The Turkish Air crash fits quite nicely.
I've worked my share of accidents. Some pilots have always done really careless or downright dumb things. That isn't the exclusive domain of today's younger pilots.
But, the majority before automation knew how to fly the airplane and how to stay ahead of it. And, I don't recall a jet transport accident with a U.S. carrier where visual illusions overtook trust and proper use of attitude instruments.
I was fortunate in that I flew both low-tech and high tech aircraft. We were trained to fly the high-tech airplanes with and without automation, and did a fair amount of both. That seems to not be the case any longer.
I currently deal extensively with all the nuances of RNP AR, which is a quantum advance in instrument approach procedures. At some locations there is virtually no margin for error, thus the proper use of the automatics is essential. But, equally essential is a plan to escape in the event the automatics and flight path guidance fail at the worst possible time. I have no doubt that pilots will handle terrain-critical RNP AR IAPs just fine so long as nothing critical fails.