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Old 15th Jun 2010, 22:38
  #523 (permalink)  
Fox3WheresMyBanana
 
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Going back to the comments on the CVR of 'the worst thing is, there is a hole there..". Is it possible that what was meant was "there could have been a hole in the cloud, therefore (radiation) fog would have formed" i.e. beneath the hole. This would obviously be the worst case as then landing would be impossible. However, if so, the comment was meant conditionally, not as an expression of knowing that there was low ground before the runway edge. Perhaps SadPole can help here.
The implication of this is that the crew were possibly not aware of the dip in the terrain. They may have assumed the terrain was flat. My next conjecture is that the handling pilot switched mentally at some point to reacting to the RA readouts of altitude. This is the only reason I can think of for the descent below zero feet QFE, which occured before CFIT. It also explains the steep descent continuing just before this. There appears to be no indication that any of the crew (falsely) thought they had sighted the runway, which is the only other reason I can think of for deliberately going that low. The RA / Baro readings being similar at the marker would only have reinforced the pilot/crew's incorrect mental image of flat terrain under them. This, coupled with the pilot knowing the RA to be more precise, and the frequent misunderstanding that more precise implies more accurate, would have mentally predisposed him to switching to listening to the RA readouts.
The steep descent continuing is a key point I think, especially the two consecutive "100" calls. I don't think anyone is checking the aircraft attitude on instruments on this point, either AI or rate of descent. I reckon the handling pilot is peering into the visual murk, looking for the runway, and the others are glued to altimeters various. There's no good visual horizon, so he's just "chasing the altimeter needle" with pitch corrections while he searches for the landing which is going to keep his job for him. The problem is, he's chasing a RA needle over variable terrain.
As to the reason for the pilot making the switch, high stress frequently leads to partial deafness as anyone who's done any air combat knows, so he could have just stopped listening to the non-standard voice (the General). Or, as I say, he could have deliberately switched to RA readout calls, knowing them to be more precise, and thinking they were more accurate due to the false premise of flat terrain.
I think ATC was not being listened to about their glideslope calls - the flightpath corrections seem to synchronise with the internal altitude calls.

That's my take on it anyway.

The key questions are: did they know about the dip in the terrain?
Does my theory explain the physical evidence?
Is there anything anyone knows about that goes against this theory?
We'll never really know, of course.

Now for the polemic bit...
The lessons appear obvious - don't pressure professionals with VIP's timetables. Also, if you are very pushy and someone's job depends on your decisions, then you are going to end up with people who always do what you say, despite what their professional judgement might tell them. Michael Jackson's doctor and Princess Diana's chauffeur come to mind.
To my way of thinking, the Polish President effectively committed suicide here.
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