That is exactly where we are headed IMHO. UK Defence Force as soon as they can get us out of Afghanistan. There is no appetite to get involved in another conflict like that and I doubt whether Parliament would ever vote for it again. Our doctrine is already based on us acting like a mosquito on the American rump - token effort, nothing else.
There will be more civilianisation, more FTRS and more 'outsourcing' to industry for certain training. Regular strength will shrink way beyond 25000 in the RAF and may hit 15000 within 10 years.
I doubt whether Messes will survive and, with the closing of Stations, we will see limited service accom; what is there will be charged at market rates. Much less movement ( there will be nowhere to go) means no need to send kiddies to Boarding School etc etc. Home to duty and the like? Forget it, if you choose to live 100 miles away, your problem.
I fully expect the other services to take similar hits although the Army may well get a (very) short period of growth for all Afghan related kit.
Sadly, now we are nothing more than a tiny Island (bankrupt) Nation off the Northern Coast of mainland Europe.
It is just a shame the politicians have not got the balls to come out and say it.
I really hope I am proved wrong, really...really .
