Perspective from one who did not choose to pay to fly
In 2000 I sold a successful consulting business and, being in my early-50s, decided to start the career I had once pursued and still dreamed of – being a commercial pilot. In 1967 I was part of the original UAL program that guaranteed me an FE or FO TRAINING slot IF I completed my PPL & Instrument license within a year. UAL would lend me the money for the PPL & Instrument licenses and I would repay it during my first five years of UAL employment. I was almost ready to drop out of my junior year in college and join United when my new draft number came up single digit. United could not guarantee me a deferment, even if I was in their program, so I stayed in school and kept my deferment through 1969.
Thirty-some years later I again decided to follow my dream. My consulting business involved lots of financial analysis and project management so I applied those skills to the cost of gaining my flying licenses and the necessary flight time to have a realistic chance of flying as a FO with an commuter or regional airline. I talked to many flight schools, instructor pilots, commuter and freight company pilots, and personnel departments. During the 2002 time frame it became very obvious to me that the industry was changing and there was little likelihood of my gaining a first officer rating on even a turboprop commuter without a very large outlay of money and time. And, the 2nd scale pay rates for new FOs did not allow recapture of the training costs in any reasonable time frame.
It seemed obvious to me that I was going to have to spend $40,000 - $50,000 USD to get enough time to realistically apply for an FO position. It was obvious to me that I would have to fly a lot of dark and stormy nights, small commuters, and do a lot of instructing to get to even a turboprop commuter right hand seat. Pay-to-Fly was not yet an option, threat?, and it certainly would have been another negative in my calculations.
My advantage was I could easily afford to spend the money and the time but the disadvantage was I was old enough that the starry eyed optimism of my twenties was no longer present. In 2002 - 2003 I could not see how the economics of purchasing a commercial license and flight experience could result in a net gain over an 15-year career. I still wanted to be a commercial pilot but could not make financial sense of that dream. I still do not understand how ab-initio pilots who must pay all the way thru their TR and even into their FO time can expect to receive a positive economic result.
I do understand the desire to fly but the economics of starting out as a young, low hour, heavily indebted commercial pilot do not look positive from any rational economic analysis.