My last ever entry on weather and speed
I have followed with interest the exchanges between Athur Rowe and Tandemrotor. What those exchanges, and others on the subject show is just how little factual information we have and just how contradictory that information is.
Arthur, I accept that Mr Hollbrook may have been wrong with his estimates of height and speed. However as an experienced sailor you also have to accept that he may well have been fairly accurate with his assessment of height, speed and weather. So less than two minutes from impact the crew were flying legally, at a sensible speed and "apparantly" under full control.
We know that the crash site was either in cloud / fog or at least on the very edge of it. We also know the aircraft impacted at or around VNE. (Mr Cable, expert witness.)
How can this be explained?
1. Gross negligence. Having seen the Mull the operating pilot reached down and selected a very large handful of throttle. He then deliberately pointed his aircraft into a cloudbank and hit the ground.
If we accept the Holbrook evidence why on earth did the crew, who had up until a few seconds earlier been flying at a sensible speed do this? Remember also the decision of the operating pilot to take this course of action was being monitored by two other experienced aircrew.
2. Major technical malfunction. Sqn Ldr Burke was right all along.
3. Pilot / Aircrew error. The crew approached the Mull at a 70 kts. They identified the Mull at an estimated 3 nms and now felt safe to accelerate to a higher speed, prior to the turn. Due to an transient error in the TANs they were not at 3nms they were at one. Victims of visual illusion. Now throw in another distraction such as a caption, they would be into the cloud before they could respond.
The likes of John Purdy and Cazatou will tell you that such a scenario is fanciful. If crews never fall victim to visual illusion or distraction, why do IFS waste so much money making films about them?
On balance of probabilities I favour 3. 2. 1.
So Baston I agree with you. Pilot error is a likely scenario.
You can,t rule out 2 or 1 though, can you.