Hi,
Originally Posted by sensor_validation
The weather models suggest AF447 was nearly through the storm system @0210. They were already deviating some 10NM W of flightpath and had reduced speed from M0.82 to M0.80 at some point, so precise heading unknown.
a) sorry, but which weather model is suggesting that?
BEA (position) + Méteo France (0215 weather sat map) data -see reports- are showing that AF447 was close to the coldest part of this active CB system @ 0210 (and roughly half way - but previous meteo analysis from Tim Vasquez was showing the wrong position on the right map).
b) Where did you get this 10 nm W of flightpath?
0210 last know position was exactly recorded 2.94 nm W of flightpath with an error margin inferior to +/-0.3 nm (eurocockpit source):
Originally Posted by sensor_validation
The BEA 40NM search radius would appear to assume less than 1 minute level flight plus 10,000 ft/min rapid descent - keeping airframe substantially intact, triggering pressure advisory below 8,000ft and end of flight less than minute later.
... way too much reading into this estimation!
This 40 nm circle was drawn from day 1 barely without any data analysis and absolutely no wreckage to study: 5 mn of flight (ACARS transmitted) at speed inferior to 500 knots = 40 nm (= 5.000 square nm). Alpha zone (based on higher probability) was even extended near TASIL and the Southern part, passed 10 nm from LKP, was discarded.
Originally Posted by sensor_validation
It seems most likely that loss of control occurred almost immediately, with one cascade of problems starting with the pitots - detected at 2:10, but giving faulty data before?
It doesn't seem most likely at all -until someone will find where the wreckage is.
Probability that it was not discovered by sea scans inside already searched zones is currently very low (both pingers destroyed).
The most unreliable part of the search so far was the airborne SAR operation during the first six days due to the lack of adequate means (site distance, very few aircraft, no helicopters), inadequate weather (low clouds, poor visibility, rain, sea state), disturbance by floating garbage (high seas are full of floating debris), dispersion with time (floating stuffs -nearly fully submerged - finally covered a large area that made it very hard to be spotted from the air).
The probability that all three sensors were giving simultaneous faulty data before 0210 is many many times more unlikely (such an issue would more likely start from the ground). More precisely, it is almost ruled out by the fact that this pitot issue was detected in flight at 0210 and that relevant systems seems to have reacted as per design.
S~
Olivier