Originally Posted by
D Bru
Unless there was an immediate catastrophic event @ 0210 (other than iced pitots) ...
And if weather ahead would have required a change of course under those circumstances...
The weather models suggest AF447 was inside the storm system @0210. They had reduced speed from M0.82 to M0.80 at some point. The final ACARS position report which probably reports the position at 02:10:30, shortly after the incident started, shows deviation West from the planned route, but with a precision that the BEA report does not appear to believe significant
AF447 ACARS MESSAGES
Code:
2:10:34#0210/+2.98-30.59
The full set of ACARS position (and turbulence?) reports do not appear to be in the Public Domain. There are clearly false reports which appear to give a location for the 2:10:14z message.
The BEA 40NM search radius would appear to assume less than 1 minute level flight plus 10,000 ft/min rapid descent - keeping airframe substantially intact, triggering pressure advisory below 8,000ft and end of flight less than minute later.
It seems to me most likely that loss of control occurred almost immediately, with one cascade of problems starting with the pitots - detected at 2:10, but possibly giving faulty data before?