you will find this is what ryanair said. It is there estimate and needed for them to make the estimated profits.
While you are correct that a strong $ against the Euro helps when they sell planes it hurts big time when they buy fuel.
I am not forecasting Ryanair's demise as it can operate at a loss for many years on its asset base. What I am expecting is that it will make less profit this year and go into losses or only tiny profits in later years. Its average fare is too low to make a profit at higher oil prices. The only way oil price is going down is if we have a big downturn.
You start of the premise that management do nothing which is why time and again your attempt at forecasting Ryanair's demise is such a crock of sugar.
Ryanair has shown itself again and again to have people quickly willing and able to grasp at ideas and plans which years ago were unthought about. Not all of them work but then again nobody would expect that.
One only has to look at post 9/11 where they got people back on planes quickly when the industry faced meltdown or talking to boeing when everybody else was cancelling orders.
LUCK doesn't just happen which is why your forecasts are laughable as there is such a negativity that you fail to grasp that management can actually manage. They make mistakes but then again their recovery makes up for it. Keep providing the humourous forecasts.