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Old 29th May 2010, 10:37
  #3031 (permalink)  
brooksjg
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
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It is part of what I presented in my Risk course this morning.
'Your' course? or a course you were at?

Doesn't matter - at least part of the audience must have lost focus, otherwise your comments would have been re-edited by now.

Estimating the total ticket-sale revenue for your example flight is one thing. Then using ALL of that revenue in a break-even calculation, taking into account the probability of whether the flight trashes the engines is something entirely different!

You seem to have have failed to account for OTHER costs associated with the flight, starting with the cost-of-ownership of the aircraft itself, excluding engines, crewing costs etc. OK - you dostate these are crude figures. But realities suggest that margins are already wafer-thin and it's quite surprising that airline operators at the budget end of the market even bother to get out of bed in the morning! Add on the risk of (at least 2) trashed engines during a VA alert, and it would be easy to understand a complete suspension of ops.
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