The Flaps were stowed at impact. (BEA). The spoilers are part of the upper wing surface. The recovered Spoiler shows evidence of collapse in a deployed position.
The spoiler shows evidence of no water impact from underneath, its damage is consistent with overspeed, aerodynamic collapse and removal by the airstream. The Radome, though recovered in pieces, shows much the same sort of failure.
The Vertical Stabilizer (leading edge) shows collapse as though "pushed back". Its damage is symmetrical, intimating that the leading edge was impacted by a force that was distributed while the VS was a part of the airframe. If water impact caused this symmetric failure, the VS would have to have entered the water edge on; though possible, this is highly unlikely. The damage to the vertical take up arm (the missing "end"), cannot have occurred without damage to the Hinge axis, unless it was shaken loose by vibration, something that in itself would not have disrupted the integrity of the Rudder Hinges.
A/P. The auto system uncouples per the following parameters: an inability to keep the a/c from rolling greater than 45 degrees, pitching up more than 15 degrees, pitching down more than nine degrees. If it is assumed that the uncoupling occurred due to one or more of the limits having been attained, it must also be assumed that these rather extensive excursions were abrupt; a pilot would not allow an a/c to slowly degrade its ride to these limits. The ACARS are maintenance hallmarks only, and are sequenced plus or minus one minute? SATCOM has some antenna requirements, so during the cascade of these messages, the a/c must have been in antenna posture aspect that limits conjecture about the end relative to upset.. The Spoiler speaks of a need to slow, other evidence points to overspeed. How fast?
The answer I think is in the debris location. Where were the VS, radome bits, and bodies? This means the first body, laptop and VS establish the first of a series of trajectories (airborne loss of integrity), or, the only one. The Ocean is a mystery to me, so I'll keep reading and staring at the work of others.
bear