His argument is the one followed by the authorities. He's right. Its not his imagination, its reality that VA shuts down airspace - he doesn't have to prove anything becuase he is simply explaining what is happening and will happen in future.
Refusing to accept the explanation of why its happening isn't an 'argument' or 'discussion', it simply a refusal to accept reality.
Peter We
The above is not Sunfishes arguement at all neither have I seen one posting which disputes what you say above.
The arguement has been about HOW MUCH airspace is closed and what level of ash is acceptable to fly in?
That ranges from ZERO which some argue for up to the maximum dense stuff which billows out of the volcano mouth which no one but a fool would enter.
My own position is that if I can see and eye ball pollution clouds or dense mist and avoid then it will not harm me. It may harm the bank balance long term in clear air with low ash levels but to date there is ZERO evidence to back that up!!!
So really the arguement has been over low density levels of ash.
We have also argued about computer and mathematical ash movement forecasts which have also been innacurate infact some may even argue Dangerous as they give FALSE confidence of where ash may or may not be.
Sunfish has argued the doomsday scenario of 100s of engines all requiring rebuilds at the same time. He has absolutely NO evidence to back that up.
Neither has anyone any evidence whatsover through history that low levels of ash are any threat to safety.
Until that evidence raises its head any restrictions other than NOT to fly in visible ash clouds or mist will just ruin our industry and jobs which I have a sneaking feeling that some here want (not directed at you) especially when those restrictions are not based on a demonstrable safety threat.
Pace