pbl:
It may be worth reminding discussants of two things.
First, I see no reason to suppose that any FDR or CVR data will be made public. Neither would I necessarily expect that the ICAO-required final report will be made public. Let's see first if the required 30-day report is made public.
Second, participants in any of the investigations (Annex 13, or insurer's, or ...) will be under non-disclosure and are very unlikely to participate in any way in public discussion if they value their jobs and life savings. Missives from anyone claiming here that they *know* what went on can most wisely be read with this in mind.
Let's hope you're wrong, but I suspect the odds are very high that you are right, particularly in view of the history of the host country (some contrary posts on this forum notwithstanding) and further than the air carrier is carrying the host country flag.
If that is indeed the end result, then all responsible carriers best avoid operating into that country.