Sunfish
To put it another way: An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. Saying "No" and grounding you until we are relatively certain you are safe is the simplest, cheapest and most direct safety action.
On what basis or knowledge do you make your fanciful and wild statements?
Frankly Sunfish you do not have a clue what you are talking about.
Do you not think that the Airline industry would not jump at the so called "cheapest" option as you declared?
The biggest flaw in computer mapping of VA is that VA density is no more consistant than any cloud.
You could take an area of 10,000 sq miles of ash contaminated air estimated as being within the approved density levels and there would be NO consistancy in that area.
Some patches would be way below other patches would be way above.
Any particles in the air of enough area and density will show to the naked eye in a cloud or mist form. The only practical and accurate way to avoid flying into dense ash is to avoid flying into visible cloud especially pollution coloured cloud.
Stick in clear air by using the normal CB avoidance of requesting a left or right deviation is the only practical and reliable way of keeping clear of dense ash which "could" cause you an inflight engine problem and of course avoiding flying at night.
As to minute density areas of ash which are in thin mist form or not visible then the only practical way is to check those aircraft for pollution damage on a regular basis.
As for your doomsday scenario forecast of 100s of engines needing major maintenance that is equally fanciful and not showing any evidence to date.
Until the day that qualified engineers start reporting such damage I am afraid that your comments will stay in the fanciful and in your dreams bin.
If that ever happens and I doubt it then I will take my hat off to you and say that Sunfish was right.
I would also like to ask you what your background and knowledge is that justifies your wild assumptions?
Yes I do think the current VA forecasting is seriously flawed and innacurate and that also is proving to be true.
Please also differentiate between what is a threat to flight and a threat to bank balance.
The threat to bank balance will be best determined by the airlines as probably will the threat to flight by pilots and airlines and engineers not some burocrats, politicians or quangos with their own agendas and back covering foremost.
Pace