Is that view based on inside knowledge?
The "100% doom" scenario is always an option, but is it realistic? Every CPL/IR flying a non-AOC business jet, who has European "residence", will be fired by his employer unless he sits the 14 CPL/IR exams, flies 55 hrs, re-does his Type Rating perhaps, and passes the JAA CPL/IR checkrides. They are sure going to love this. This level of pilot privilege stripping is unprecendented in aviation, worldwide.
OTOH for all the obvious political / economic / job protection reasons I am not expecting EASA to do anything less than run the full course, with no weakness indicated till the last moment.