originally posted by
Great Bear ...
Am I missing some major eddy or whirl or stasis that would have kept the bodies neatly on station around 3º30' N from June 1 until June 6, when they then commenced their northward drift (see
post #1120)?
The surface current was a bit of an unknown quantity between 3°N and 3°30'N, though in theory it should have been NE and turning through to N at 3°30'N and then depending on the Long would take you to the north of TASIL or further to the west. The velocity would appear to have been a little less than that observed post 6 June, and knowing the areas searched by the FAB, that effectively means that the current was moving NNE through to N to the west of the LKP. It could well be that a stream was flowing from around 2°30'N 31°20'N in a NNE direction and on approaching 3°N branched both left to N and right to NE, then sort of paralleled up again to become N by E. What happened in the middle would be anyone's guess.
The question of leeway for the bodies needs to be addressed, but post 6 June the wind was generally light and from an easterly quarter. Some bodies may have floated initially, and others will have sunk to an equilibrium point, and depending on water temperature at that point will have eventually made their way to the surface. Warm temps mean this happened more quickly than in temperate latitudes.
The Port Outer Spoiler was found 40NM N by E of TASIL on 13 June, and if the bodies and the vertical stabilizer hadn't been subject to some leeway due to windage, I would have expected them all to have finished up passing close by TASIL. That wasn't the case, and the vertical stabilizer was located some distance to the west of the nearest bodies, which indicates that the wind had played a part in its total drift.
My first look at the problem using OSCAR and QuikSCAT data lead me to place the impact position near 3°N and 31°10'W, and one of those positions was south of the LKP and hasn't been looked at in this phase 3 search. My present thinking based on updated information still comes up with a position near the north side of the southwest quadrant at around 2°49'N 31°06'W. In due course I'll put up a graphic to show how that is achieved, but in any-case the fact that most of the area to the north has been searched and found devoid of any debris, doesn't mean that my position is any better that any other guess at this stage.
I'm disappointed to read that according to Le Figaro the BEA and the Ministry of Defence are having a spat over the existence or not of pinger records.
mm43