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Old 24th May 2010, 22:45
  #2987 (permalink)  
brooksjg
 
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You are in a better armed state to face the next challenge when it arrives
Based on most recent events, I beg to differ. We're more likely at a 'Rumsfeld Moment', when it's become apparent that there are some extra Known Unknowns which either didn't matter previously or were Unknown Unknowns.

Realities are that a (small) volcano has stopped erupting for now and the big one (Hekla) has yet to start. Meantime, we still have no quick, accurate means to locate and measure volcanic ash in the atmosphere, and therefore depend on computer modelling, which in turn depends on accurate data from forecasts and actual weather in the recent past. As was demonstrated last week, modelling can fail and each time it does the unnecessary financial cost to the industry is very large and/or aircraft could be damaged.

Not much of a moment for congratulations. And to say that we're 'better armed' only applies to defensive reaction time when ash is predicted, with little improvement in prediction accuracy or avoidance of the problem. There must be potential improvements in sensors and other detection strategies but little evidence at the moment of any concerted effort being applied.

Sorry to rain on the parade but that's the way it is.
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