Chris Scott: Thank you for your analysis. Descent of the aircraft from normal cruise at FL350 to sea level in less than four and a half minutes presents a nightmare of darkness, bad weather, unusual attitudes and perhaps overwhelming g forces. As you point out, the timing between 02:10:47z and the unreceived 02:14:45z ACARS messages "suggests a rate of descent averaging 7600ft/min. That is nearly three times the average VS obtained at normal descent speeds (prior to deceleration) with idle thrust..."
So many unknowns. Might the aircraft have been still in the air beyond 02:14:45z (asymetrical flame-outs -- loss of power)? Uncontrolled, would this 205t aircraft "drop like a stone?" Had the crew already turned back (they were west of track at 02:10)? Many questions already discussed in this and the prior thread. Few hard answers.
But all might agree now with Hyperveloce that "the SW of the 40 NM radius circle seems by far the best candidate now for further searches and I really hope that a new search phase will be funded for this SW area."
While there have been beneficial lessons already learned from this tragedy, it seems there will be no definition without more data. Mow the lawn! Readable black boxes are the holy grail.
As we approach the first anniversary, my thoughts are with the many relatives and loved ones who have lost so much.
GB