Whowhenwhy suggested:
but once Typhoon has sorted A-G I think that Tornado has had it's day
Interesting. I would think that the better idea is to set a drop-dead OSD for the GR4, and fly the wings off the remaining jets, whether or not Tiffie gets A-G working properly. My thinking is three-fold:
(a) GR4 is supposedly half the cost per hour to operate than Typhoon (c. £40k vs c. £85k / hour IIRC), so wassing it about in Helmandshire is going to be a lot cheaper than Tiffie.
(b) Tiffie has to last. And last. And last some more. I heard a rumour that the Tranche 1s OSD was something that felt weirdly soon, like all Tranche 1s gone by 2020 (this is a rumour network - can anyone comment?).
IF this is true, then the Tiffie Tranche 2 and Tranche 3as (given that Tranche 3b is almost certainly dead from a UK perspective given the funding position) will have to make it beyond 2030 - possibly 2040. So stretching Tiffie Tranche 2 and Tranche 3a life is going to be very important down the road - not to be wasted in the 'Stan if there are serviceable (at least in a Tonka sense of the word.....
) GR4s available.
(c) If you set a drop-dead OSD for GR4, you can then plan the number of crews required to OSD; and in particular, the number of WSO (Navs). Once you have this number plus a margin, you can close down the Nav training pipeline and save a pile more cash. (Sorry Navs). But before this descends into Nav-baiting, you may have to bribe some to stay in and flying... FRI for Navs? I wouldn't bet against it.
So on this basis, GR4 would soldier on in sandy places doing its current op job to 2020/25, and would in turn probably be replaced with a (small) JSF (Dave) fleet; preferably Dave-Cs....
I'm pro-Dave-C, but I'm also a fully paid up luddite member of the "Don't buy the Mark 1 of anything club", and would much rather the US invest the squillions to iron out the kinks in Dave before the UK buys any more.
It will be interesting to see what comes out of the defence and security review on this - if you were to significantly reduce the size of the FJ fleet, then you could stretch the hours on Tiffie and GR4 - further delaying the cost of bringing Dave into service.
All speculation and rumour, of course.
S41