MM43
Your summary of the "knowns and unknowns" presents a helpful review of the situation to date.
Looking at the Vertical Stabilizer which had a reasonable amount of windage affecting it
I wish it were so straight forward. The VS weighed about 1800 kg and had an area of 53 m^2.
I estimate only 10% of the surface area of the VS was above sea level and subject to windage. In summary, the VS had a lot (90% submerged) of underwater drag that may have attenuated the wind effects. Note the VS was submerged at a slight angle that may have "dug in" with the wind drag.
Your own estimates of the aircraft's location on the sea floor using OSCAR/QuikSCAT data were particularly well done and the AUVs are searching that area now, but so far... no cigar. So big the question now is....
"what have we missed?"
Could the aircraft go beyond 40 nm in the last 4 (or more) minutes? Did the aircraft continue more or less along her original course contrary to the modeled debris backtracked estimates (models do not always reflect the real ocean). Do the mountainous areas from the Emeraude sonar tapes need to be searched with higher resolution.
I do not know the answer, but this effort is proving to be a challenging mystery, and we all want to find the answer.
However the search is still continuing, and "it ain't over til the fat lady sings"