The debris field does not really support the nose up tail impact scenario.
What we see:
The tail is surprisingly intact, the VTP tip is undamaged, the rudder tip is broken, the HTP is still attached. It sits upright but against the flight direction.
The wings are also quite intact, even some of the fixed trailing edge structure (light composite parts) are still attached. The wings sit upside down in the direction of the impact.
If the tail broke of first at impact, it needs to rotate around the vertical axis to reach its position, this would require a HTP tip ground contact, which would not leave the HTP perfectly in place (The HTP attachment is not at all designed to take such loads).
If the wings would tumble over after loss of tail, it would rest upside down against the impact direction.
For me this looks like a fully inverted nose down impact. Fuselage completely disintegrates, wings (being the most heavy part) slide forward and come to rest at end of debris field (inverted in direction of flight). Due to fuselage desintegration, the tail section flips over 180° and lands VTP up agains flight direction destroying most of the lower forward part but keeping the HTP attached.
Would not be the first time that an airliner impacted inverted nose down after LOC... but for an Aircraft with that many protections ???