Two things do not fit here:
1) I would expect the VOR approach track to be further to the north than drawn above - it is a runway approach and the FAT would normally cross the centreline around about the MAP which is the 'D' NDB, so they were more than '300m south'
2) What do we do with the Alitalia 'eye-witness report' of a pitch attitude of '20 degrees nose down'? It seems to suggest that they in fact saw the dive AFTER the initial impact.