I am in Tripoli now, and I was here yesterday at time of occurrence.
So far it is clear that:
Accident site has been heavily contaminated by hundreds of people wondering around, moving wreckage, picking up evidence, etc. (look at viedos and pictures and if you have ever done an accident investigation you know what I mean)
So called statements about exploding before impact or calling ATC to alert emergency services are from uncontrolled sources (those of you who know this part of the world can figure the situation.... a security officer, who is a cousin of my sister in law has told me that he heard... etc.)
Relative High energy impact and "cartwelling" rather than flat short landing, given the extent of wreckage field.
Good teories to explore:
Pilots Fatigue,
Fuel Starvation,
Pilots short of practice on NPA approaches
Last second ample correction to re-align with centerline
Contributing factors:
Choice of runway
weather, rather visibility at time of impact
status of nav aids
Any other thoughts....?