This will be very interesting and will effect diffrent sectors in diffrent ways, the losers i suspect will be the legacy carriers with low load factors the winners will be the IT carriers that can usually fill every seat.
The loCo's will be effected in a rather interesting way and one that i support, the loCo's currently charge APD (A goverment tax remember) but only hand it over if the pax fly, it is probably the case that Ryanair gain 10's of millions a year in gathering a goverment tax, but not handing it over or back if the pax doesn't travel, the admin fee's for reclaiming are higher than the refund in many cases.
Of course Ryanair are not the only one, just the biggest
Turning to the per plane replacement, the devil will be in the detail and i suspect that they will follow what has been done with vehicle Co2 tax.
This could or should mean that Ryanair and Easyjet will have a lower cost per seat cost (with per plane tax) because they operate more modern aircraft than say bmibaby or Jet2.
Sadly this will hurt Jet2 more than most because they own their aircraft and the value of classic 737's in the UK market will fall through the floor, most of bmibaby's fleet is up for renewal in the next 3 years (if the're still around) likewise bmi regionals fleet will cost far more to operate than Flybe's DH fleet untill fleet renewal later next year. Will freight and night mail flights be effected?
I suspect this will reduce flights into London Heathrow with AMS & CDG gaining, it will be a big boost for the A380.
At least we won't have Broon flying back to EDI to brood or breed every weekend
