modelled ash concentration charts
Hi,
went to work yesterday, and had downloaded the modelled ash concentration charts,
especially those valid 12:00z on 09May. They were produced 00z.
They did not show any black over Germany, at least the surface..fl200 chart did not.
No problem, no talk of closures.
Then, the 06z chart was produced, and it showed a large black dot over France, near Paris,
and a few smaller dots over southern Germany in the 12:00z forecast.
Result: airspace closed in the afternoon.
Questions: Does the model behave rationally, or does it contain flukes, or is it inaccurate
at times, or is there a new volcano north of Paris that injects new ash (hope not) ?
Best, Klaus