BEA, DEC-2009, p.39:
* unusual attitudes: given the relative position of the satellite with respect
to the aircraft and the aircraft’s tracking capability, the antenna would
have to be masked by the aircraft’s fuselage or wings. Examination of
the debris showed that the aircraft hit the water with a bank angle close
to zero and a positive pitch angle. The aircraft would therefore have
been able, in the last seconds at least, to transmit an ACARS message.
* end of the flight between 2 h 14 min 26 and 2 h 15 min 14.
Yep, and then, they searched the wrong place following this pattern of thinking while this was not the only possibility. Now, if the wreck is located where the Seabed Explorer is searching, they might revise this point as I don't think it is possible to assume what you are saying below:
Originally Posted by Denis
Going another 40nm appears feasible at around 600 mph (521 knots) (and also the CAS > 530 in ACARS); but declining from FL350 within 4 minutes would make that rate close to 9,000f/m, which appears not conclusive with a bank eagly close to zero and a positive pitch angle. This would more likely be the case if the a/c had been at a (ACARS-) assumed max altitude of 14,000f at this point in time, making the decl. rate around 3,500f/m, making the ditch interpretation more likely. Wouldn't the conditions of total pressure and and airspeed be met with the first quoted ACARS?
If this aircraft crashed up to 40nm from 02.10 position, more or less following its flight plan, it would be possible to consider a crash before 02.15 [which was the primary BEA assumption], but still your theory of 14,000 ft due to Mach fault would be wrong.
On the other hand, considering its initial course and the place where the wreck is searched, it looks like very unlikely that she could fly to this point, when heading first in opposite direction. Or it would mean that she was already flying in this direction before 02.10. But, she was not flown on manual until PROBE faulted at 02.10 triggering AP A/throttle off, and consequently; it is even more unlikely that such a drastic change of course could have been taken place or even initiated considering its 02.10 position so close to the original flight plan. As for distance and time, this crash doesn't look (at all) like one where an aircraft percuted at 500+ knots.
S~
Olivier