Has anyone ever been involved in setting up a desktop simulation?
Been studying this subject and it would appear the basis is listing all outcomes, assigning a random number to each event, then plugging in a random number generator and keep running the generator until a pattern starts to emerge. The pattern is your statistical model...highly scentific..
Basic premise is to plug in what HAS HAPPENED before in a certain time period with a specific number of movements then calculate the outcome as a percentage of the total and then assign a random number...could be very large number...ASIR reports say that there are 18 VCAs a year..there are 300,000 movements...sooo...assign 18 numbers randomly from 1 to 300,000 and then run a random number generator and see how many times these numbers come up..keep running until a pattern emerges...say over ten years and 3,000,000 events...the percentage of that outcome is the risk...sounds pretty basic.
However, in the case of VCAs very rarely is a VCA occurance enacted exactly the same way...each VCA would then have individual descriptions of how each pilot came to break into the zone...different spot on the boundary different conditions different destinations, different pilots and differing pressures or distractions and you can see the number starts looking very random.
Also, what has happened before has no bearing on what will happen again...these are all random events...hard to model for this type of thing...
Now, looking at RPT on the exact same track and the exact same timetable, going from point A to point B with differing effects for weather alone and aircraft weight and you start to see a pattern that could just about detect how each individual pilot flying actually handles the aircraft..
Does this sound about right?
If I am right then you CAN predict what an RPT will do most all the time...you cannot predict with ANY certainty what a GA PPL will do if left to their own devices...so...the outcome that would be safest is to include some amount of directional control or even knowledge of direction to keep all the wheels spinning and the outcome of swapping paint will be "vanishingly small"
A GA VFR on a random track through non-controlled airspace also habituated by controlled IFR RPT...did someone say install VFR lanes?