Dick,
I think you mean ..... that you want to see the theoretical calculation of what the accident rate might be.
You are correct.
But it's a little bit more complicated than that.
There is obviously a model produced that, when conflict pairs/actual traffic numbers/ actual traffic mix/ geography/airspace classification/ weather/ blah blah blah or whatnot are entered into it, produces the "estimated risk" ( for want of a better word) for that particular volume of airspace.
I also assume that this model was produced ... taking into account, amongst other things, experiences elsewhere... which would cover off your requirement.
I'm happy that the product of this process would be about as accurrate as us humans can be ... at the moment.
Then, I assume, that "estimated risk" would have to be put to the "cost benefit" sword ... to get a final outcome.
Trouble is, the cupboard is bare ... so we are left to thrust and counter thrust ... round and round in circles.