This really is the bit that gets my goat. I and most others I listen to or read are not claiming by any stretch of the imagination that an aircraft will fly tomorrow, suffer multiple engine failures and glide for a landing into Blackpool. We are not forecasting doom at all. In fact I am very aware of the possibility and indeed hoping for it to turn out to be the case that nothing comes of this at all. But the single point is WE DO NOT KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN.
How pathetic an answer is it to say "we'll find out what damage is done in due course". Or for someone to say they flew 6 flights over the last three days and did not have single problem - as if this gives any indication of general conditions to be expected across the whole European network. That's the same ridiculous logic that was used to open the airspace so quickly in the first place.
Damage can be done and in fact, damage has been done. I completely agree that there must be conditions under which it is safe to fly and it is extremely unlikely that sustained significant damage would be done to every aircraft on every route. But we have not had any proper examination of that possibilty whatsoever. Worse than that, some of the test flights which did occur did find potentially damage causing levels of ash. Although it seems this finding was too close to the agrrement on the regulations. The point of no return must have been reached. Most signifcantly though in my mind they found multiple varying layers of ash conecntrations when this new regulation is based an three zones of constant and evenly spread concentration - something that nature will never provide.
This isn't about simply whether an aircraft will fly and crash. This about so much more than that. It is about the heavily commercially orientated mindset of those tasked with being objective and non-commercially orientated.
If this was a scenario that was likely to continue for weeks or months then I would understand the need to find a way to save our entire industry. But our industry as a whole was never at risk because this was NEVER going to last that long. Our safety process has been influenced by shareholders. Plain and simple. That's my problem.
No proper system of analysis nor operational procedures have been employed. Let me ask all you airline guys out there that challenge those who did or didn't fly already since the clampdown: When you're up there, after having studied your ash charts before you left and you're pootling through swedish airspace and suddenly ATC advises you of a new VA sigmet for the area you are flying in or intending to land in what do you do? The same as the rest of us - tear it up and throw it away because the chart didn't show it in your area I imagine. How do you deal with a pirep? That's something completely different surely? And there has been pireps of ash encounters - whether they were valid or not is another question - but aircraft are ignoring them completely. We have been led by the bloody nose here!!!!
Can anyone explain how the AACC shows zone 1 and 2 limited to Iceland while Gothenburg is confirmed to be zone 2 by ATC?
Put your head back there so I can a good hold on your nostrils while I walk into this cave to see what's in it.............