posted by rgbrock1;
There has been a lot of conjecture on this thread, granted. But I have also read plenty of hypothesis by professionals here which not only seem reasonable but highly accurate and probably very close to the mark. And in all these pages and pages of postings I believe what really happened to AF447 is contained herein.
Firstly, thanks for writing the above. The sentiments expressed are becoming truer as each day passes.
I for one am disappointed that the Phase 3 search has been a failure, but on the otherhand I am glad that there is less potential area to search. Whether that is done, will be a matter that will no doubt become political in France, and further searching has added costs to be met by someone. In defence of the BEA, they have hired the "best" expertise that they could find to help determine where AF447 crashed, and it is no fault of theirs [BEA] that the outcome has proved less than desirable.
Earlier in this thread, I made the point that all the data analysis and computer power available might lead to nought, now't, zip, zero in this very fickle part of the Atlantic Ocean. So be it.
However, way back in the giant AF447 thread I posted a possible scenario, which I had backed up with some careful research using currently available data and some 'between the ears' logic, and experience, in determining a possible impact position. The resulting graphic has now been superimposed on a portion of the BEA's latest Search Area image. The #2 position represents a nominal Vertical Stabilizer backtracked position using real-time OSCAR/NOAA surface currents and QuikSCAT 10m wind data obtained by satellite observation. The #1 and #3 positions are the result of applying corrections to both the mean surface current velocity and direction after "eye-balling" the overall trends. The 3°03.1'N 31°04.5'W position is the geometric centre of the resulting triangle, and that position is at variance with my original posting by 0.3'N due to a graphical error, since corrected mathematically.
Hopefully, the BEA will have a look in this area, and should it prove fruitless, then there is that much less area to search. On the otherhand, if they get lucky, everyone will be relieved and a contribution to my superannuation fund wouldn't go amiss!
PS Some of you may have noticed that the above position was left as "bait" on the recent search area graphics I had posted.
mm43