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Old 21st Apr 2010, 08:09
  #2126 (permalink)  
Re-Heat
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
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a) It was not a UK-only reaction; decisions were made across Europe as well

b) Met Office modelling shows the cloud becoming more diffuse as time progresses - hence why we now find airspace opening in conjunction with changed risk assessments on engine tolerances. I still do not see how that possibly indicts the decisions of the last 6 days as bad. I don't see this as being ridiculous at all. Met Office: Icelandic volcano - Ash concentration charts

c) North Atlantic weather patterns have not dissapated the cloud, unlike eruptions from Redoubt, Alaska or other volcanoes have

d) Empirical observations have vindicated the modelling: see where their own heli was grounded on the way to make the observations Met Office: New observations of volcanic dust

e) Further empirical observations here: Met Office: Icelandic volcano imagery

f) I don't see any conflict between the satellite images (which the Met Office has also published throughout) and the forecast maps; empirical evidence has supported the presence of thinner volcanic ash in areas not shown on the satellite map, the same thin ash layers which caused Finnish F18 engine damage

Edit: g) Read ORAC's article link



I am happy for the CAA and NATS to make a professional judgement that flight is safe in the environment today; I don't see that process as having disproved any of the past 6 days' decisions whatsoever. That process was necessary if insufficient tolerance data was available, and the ash cloud was more concentrated until today.

On the contrary, the attitude of many here seems to be no different from the psychological state of bull market participants in the stock market who match their ideas to facts as they perceive them, rather than recognising changed environments.

I still can't see why people see a conspiracy, particularly on the side of conservatism (when it is usually levelled at bullish companies who are alleged to compromise flight safety...)

"Belief in conspiracy theories can be comforting. If everything that goes wrong is the fault of a secret cabal, that relieves you of the tedious necessity of trying to understand how a complex world really works. And you can feel smug that you are smart enough to “see through” the official version of events."

Safe flying
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